The Warsh Regime Begins
Markets are watching rates. The real shift is institutional.
The Fed transition has officially begun.
Kevin Warsh is about to chair his first meeting.
Every desk on Wall Street will turn it into a rate event. The decision. The dots. The inflation language. The first press conference. The Powell optics.
That is the familiar game.
But this setup is bigger than a normal handoff.
Most new Fed chairs inherit a policy problem. Warsh is inheriting an operating system under stress.
Powell is still on the Board. Trump is still leaning on the institution. Bessent is still making the case against the old regime. Inflation remains politically dangerous. Rates are still biting into housing, credit, and long-duration assets. Treasury financing pressure keeps moving closer to the center of the macro story.
In another cycle, this would be a personnel transition.
In this cycle, it is a stress test.
Markets spent years learning how to trade one kind of Fed.
Now they are about to find out how much of that playbook still works.
Full breakdown below.
