Ethereum 2026 Forecast Update: The New Phase

What changed since February, what still holds, and where ETH resolves from here

On February 14, we issued our last full Ethereum forecast update.

ETH was trading around $2,085.

At the time, the market was acting like Ethereum was broken.

We said it wasn’t.

Our read was that ETH had entered a regime transition where flows set price and the token traded like beta inventory until a persistent marginal buyer showed up.

That framework held for a while.

ETH pushed higher after the update, eventually reaching roughly $2,400 on April 17.

Then the market changed again.

On Friday, crypto was hit by a broad liquidation wave. ETH broke below the $2,000 area that our prior forecast had identified as the key clearing zone. It flushed into the mid-$1,500s before beginning to rebound.

We waited before publishing this update because the first reaction after a liquidation event is usually the least reliable one.

Price moves first. Narratives rush in behind it. Signal takes longer.

Now the picture is clearer.

The February map has been stress-tested.

Some parts held. Some parts need to be revised.

And the path into the rest of 2026 now looks different from the one the market was pricing before the flush.

The full updated forecast is below.