Bitcoin Reflexive Forecast Update - Feb 5, 2026

A Structural Map of the Post-Fracture Regime

Markets are tanking.

Bitcoin is spiraling.

Everyone’s asking the same thing:

What the hell is happening and is the cycle broken?

We’ve waited to speak until the signal was clear.

Now it is.

Back in August, we mapped a run to $125K and above.

By early October, Bitcoin tagged $126K - on schedule, on structure.

Then came October 10th. A market-maker fracture shattered liquidity and broke price integrity.

We reissued the forecast, still leaning bullish, still assuming recovery.

But the damage ran deeper and in our November 20th Market Update, we revised the base case to $102K–$110K.

Bitcoin didn’t get there by year-end. But on January 13th, just two weeks later, it touched ~$98K.

The price missed the calendar. The structure followed the forecast.

This is why our forecasts focus on the long-term structural arc - not short-term noise.

Timing distorts. Headlines distract.

But architecture realigns price over the long run. That’s where the edge lives.

Now the market’s in chaos again.

Bitcoin’s plunged. Sentiment collapsed. Retail’s gone.

And the same questions are back.

This update exists to:

To reframe what just happened - structurally, not emotionally.

To update the 2026 arc and year-end path with precision.

To separate what breaks the cycle… from what doesn’t.

Let’s get into it.