2026 Oil Reflexive Forecast Update - July 14, 2026
Oil survived the opening shock. The next phase will decide the year.
Brent surged again as the Iran conflict returned to open confrontation.
The framework that pulled oil lower has fractured. Washington has ordered the blockade back into force, tankers are being hit in the Strait, and weeks of relief positioning vanished in a single session.
We have been ahead of this oil story from the start.
We called the strikes on Iran and the oil spike that followed.
When that spike became an apocalypse trade, we said the panic would break before the Strait did. It did.
Now investors are treating the latest escalation as a replay of the opening war. The fighting looks familiar.
What both sides are fighting over has changed, and almost nobody is pricing the difference.
Below is the full updated 2026 oil forecast, exclusively for Inner Ring subscribers.